Laureate Power (600236): Poor water supply from Longtan Power Plant weighed on performance and Heshan Generator significantly reduced losses

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report.

Initially achieved operating income of 95.

14 ‰, a decrease of 1 per year.

31%; net profit attributable to mothers23.

85 ‰, a decrease of 3 per year.

38%, lower than the 27 expected by Shenwan Wanyuan.

3.1 billion.

The company released the 2019 first quarter report.

Achieved 23 in the first quarter.

18 ‰, a decrease of 0 per year.

66%; net profit attributable to mothers5.

92 ppm, a reduction of 2 per year.

32%, in line with Shen Wanwanyuan’s expectations.

Key points of investment: The newly injected Juyuan Power contributed to the increase in main power generation, and the shift in power generation at Longtan Power Station dragged down 18-year performance.

The company achieved 383 hydropower generation in 2018.

700 million kWh, an increase of 10 in ten years.

7%, of which Juyuan Power acquired in the first half of the year achieved 40 generation.

3.3 billion kilowatt-hours, contributing a major increase in power generation.

After excluding the Juyuan power supply and the school power that was put into operation in July 2017, the company’s stock hydropower generating unit’s 2018 power generation swap position 2.

48%.

The company’s main source of profit is that the Longtan Power Plant’s power generation in 2018 showed a trend of high levels and low levels in the first half, and the power generation volume increased by 38 in the first half of the year.

69%, the outbound traffic has significantly decreased since the third quarter, and the annual power generation has decreased by 15 per year.

25%, a significant drag on overall performance.

The newly acquired Juyuan Power mainly deals with small hydropower in Guangxi, and the on-grid tariff has been reduced. Therefore, although the power generation has increased significantly several times, total operating revenue has decreased.

In the first quarter of 2019, the incoming water of Longtan Power Plant has not been improved, and the power generation has been reduced by 9 every year.

07%, leading to a slight fluctuation in the company’s performance.

Benefiting from the improvement of power supply and demand in Guangxi Province, Heshan Thermal Power broke through and even narrowed significantly.

The extreme Guangxi Province has continued to undertake the transfer of high-energy-consuming industries in the Pearl River Delta region, and electricity consumption has continued to increase in 2018.

8%, ranking first in the country.

The impact of the mixed power output is not good. The utilization hours of thermal power units in Guangxi Province have increased by an average of 845 hours per year. The company’s Heshan Power Plant increased its power generation in 2018 by 28.

82%.

Benefiting from the improved power generation efficiency of the unit, Heshan Power Plant will be February every year in 2018.

42 trillion, compared with 4.
.

A significant reduction of $ 9.8 billion.

In the first quarter of 2019, the power generation of Heshan Power Plant increased by 49 per year.

36%, we expect the Heshan plant in 2019 is expected to increase further narrowing.

Actively optimizing the clean energy power supply structure, and its stable performance is conducive to maintaining high dividends.
As of the end of 2018, the company’s hydropower, wind power and other clean energy accounted for 88% of the installed capacity in service.
77%.

The Guangxi 佛山桑拿网 Binyang Mawang Phase I wind power project constructed by the company in 2018 realized the first unit to start production at the end of March. The Mawang Phase II wind power project (100MW) was approved in May. New energy is expected to continue to contribute to the increase in installed capacity in the future.

The company’s 2018 dividend plan is to pay dividends for every 10 shares2.

5 yuan, the dividend ratio is 63.

56%.

The company significantly increased the dividend ratio. The dividend ratio for 2016-2018 was 30.

38%, 79.

68% and 63.

56%.

At present, the company’s overall performance is stable, and the high dividend payout ratio is expected to remain.

Earnings forecast and estimation: Considering the adjustment and reduction of 3 units and the situation of water supply, we have lowered the net profit forecast for mothers from 2019 to 2020 by 26.

77, 27.

9.6 billion (29 before adjustment respectively.

49, 29.

7.2 billion), plus net profit forecast for mothers in 2021 to 28.

59 ppm, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 13, 13 and 12 times, maintaining the “Buy” rating.